Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
99% / 99%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706359
This event has 54 active outcome markets. April 29, 2026: 99%, April 20, 2026: 99%, April 23, 2026: 99%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
95% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
99% YES (+0.7pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
-20.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this