Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.2pp above current market price; market at 92% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.3% ↑, VIX +1.8% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$920
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
89% / 94%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
92%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $920 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 92%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706357
This event has 40 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, June 30, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-5.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this