Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
Closed March 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.6pp above current market price; market at 92% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.7% ↑, VIX +1.9% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
91% / 93%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
92%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 92%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718663
This event has 40 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, June 30, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this