Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?
Closed March 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.5pp above current market price; market at 93% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.5% ↑, VIX +1.9% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
91% / 96%
Spread
5.10pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 5.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718698
This event has 40 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, June 30, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this