Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.8pp below current market price; market at 91% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.5% ↓, VIX -7.4% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
87% / 96%
Spread
8.30pp
Expert Signal
91%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 8.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706352
This event has 48 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 99%, April 30, 2026: 99%, June 30, 2026: 99%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
93% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 10, 2026
Current
99% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this