Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3?
Closed April 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$480K
Liquidity
$101K
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $480K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817327
This event has 63 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 3?: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
32% YES — lowest in period
Apr 3, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
57%
Apr 2, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 3, 2026
Biggest move: +46.0pp
32% → 78%
Apr 3, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 3, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this