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Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

75%YES
25%NO
Vol 24h$8K
Liquidity$18K
Bid / Ask73% / 76%
Spread3.00pp
ClosesApr 23, 2026

FM Estimate

77%

Market Price

75%
↓ Underpriced 2.0pp
Macro fundamentals+6.5pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-10.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-21). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2034715