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Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

76%YES
24%NO
Vol 24h$14K
Liquidity$17K
Bid / Ask75% / 78%
Spread3.00pp
ClosesApr 24, 2026

FM Estimate

78%

Market Price

76%
↓ Underpriced 2.0pp
Macro fundamentals+6.5pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-3.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-21). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2034746