Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 88% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.2% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.7% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
84% / 92%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
88%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 88%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706352
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 30, 2026: 94%, April 14, 2026: 94%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this