Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.6pp above current market price; market at 87% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.7% ↑, VIX +1.9% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
80% / 90%
Spread
10.00pp
Expert Signal
87%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706359
This event has 40 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 18, 2026: 95%, June 30, 2026: 94%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
-7.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this