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Markets/Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

8% / 12%

Spread

3.50pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
97%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
83%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
69%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
59%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
53%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
51%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
41%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
37%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
34%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
33%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
30%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
23%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
19%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
13%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
10%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
8%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
5%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
2%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-7.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -6.2pp

20% → 14%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

20% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 3.50 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591780

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