Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$101
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
12% / 14%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $101 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666660
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 65%, Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 57%, Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration: 56%.
Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Current
18% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this