Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?
Closed April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$113K
Liquidity
$53K
Bid / Ask
5% / 7%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $113K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818284
This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 90%.
Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
6% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this