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Markets/Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?
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Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

24%YES
77%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

22% / 24%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813641

Outcome Markets24 markets

This event has 24 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 88%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

24% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 24%99%
Buy YES@ 24¢
Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this