Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$30K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
63% / 64%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813642
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 88%.
Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
73% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
65% YES (-3.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this