Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +6.8pp above current market price; market at 38% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +3.5% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$203
Bid / Ask
29% / 42%
Spread
13.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 13.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847740
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" thi: 83%, Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12): 81%, Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predi: 68%.
Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
78% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
22% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: -35.0pp
78% → 43%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
34% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this