Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
24% / 25%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
24%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813648
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 88%.
Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
25% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this