Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
17% / 21%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813650
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 88%.
Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: -6.5pp
26% → 20%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
19% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this