Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$418
Bid / Ask
70% / 88%
Spread
18.00pp
Expert Signal
80%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)" at 81% YES / 19% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 18.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 81%, NO 19%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847733
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" thi: 83%, Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12): 81%, Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predi: 68%.
Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
80% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +6.0pp
78% → 84%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
83% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this