Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?
Closed April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
37% / 45%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
42%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1816043
This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 90%.
Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nati
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
40% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
32% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +17.5pp
32% → 50%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
50% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
44% YES (-5.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this