Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$232
Bid / Ask
24% / 91%
Spread
67.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 67.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847737
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" thi: 83%, Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12): 81%, Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predi: 68%.
Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
57% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
42% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +14.5pp
42% → 56%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
56% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this