US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.9pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -5.8% ↓, VIX -4.0% ↓, Gold +1.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1982151
This event has 13 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 88%, April 21, 2026: 72%, April 22, 2026: 71%.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
2% YES (-0.4pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this