Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?

Data as of Apr 14, 2026, 11:58 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

25%FIS

−2ppvs market 27%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.2pp below current market price; market at 27% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -5.2% ↓, VIX -4.0% ↓, Gold +1.4% ↑.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -5.2% ↓, VIX -4.0% ↓, Gold +1.4% ↑

-3.9pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute11:13 PM

Polymarket Price

28%YES

72%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

28% / 30%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1982153

Outcome Markets13 markets

This event has 13 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 89%, April 22, 2026: 82%, April 21, 2026: 73%.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

89%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

82%

US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?

73%