Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 86% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.3% ↑, VIX +2.5% ↑, Gold +0.7% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
84% / 88%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
86%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706353
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 12, 2026: 96%, April 30, 2026: 95%, April 30, 2026: 94%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this