Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 90% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.2% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.7% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
88% / 93%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
90%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706356
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 15, 2026: 97%, April 30, 2026: 95%, April 30, 2026: 94%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
+7.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this