Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 90% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.1% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.8% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
84% / 94%
Spread
10.00pp
Expert Signal
90%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706367
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 26, 2026: 95%, April 30, 2026: 94%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this