Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.6pp above current market price; market at 94% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.6% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
92% / 95%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
94%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706369
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 28, 2026: 98%, April 30, 2026: 97%, May 31, 2026: 96%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this