US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.8pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -5.0% ↓, VIX -4.0% ↓, Gold +1.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
3% / 5%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1982151
This event has 13 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 90%, April 21, 2026: 73%, April 22, 2026: 72%.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
4% YES (-3.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this