US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.1pp below current market price; market at 28% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -5.8% ↓, VIX -4.0% ↓, Gold +1.5% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
28% / 30%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
28%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1982153
This event has 13 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 88%, April 21, 2026: 72%, April 22, 2026: 71%.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Trough probability
23% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -6.0pp
29% → 23%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
28% YES (+4.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this