Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?
Closes April 20, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +7.8pp above current market price; market at 46% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +3.5% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P +1.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$35K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
44% / 47%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
46%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1965068
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 13?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?: 87%, Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?: 83%.
Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
74%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: +29.0pp
19% → 48%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
75% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
67% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this