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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?
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Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?

Closes April 20, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
53%FIS
+8ppvs market 46%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +7.8pp above current market price; market at 46% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +3.5% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P +1.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +3.5% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P +1.8% ↑
+7.8pp
Live compute09:00 PM

Polymarket Price

87%YES
14%NO

Volume 24h

$35K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

44% / 47%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

46%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1965068

Outcome Markets40 markets

This event has 40 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 13?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?: 87%, Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?: 83%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+58.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 13, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

74%

Apr 13, 2026

Biggest move: +29.0pp

19% → 48%

Apr 13, 2026

Peak probability

75% YES — highest in period

Apr 14, 2026

Current

67% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 87%99%
Buy YES@ 87¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.7%
½ Kelly1.9%
Buy NO@ 14¢

-3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this