Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?
Closes April 20, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +7.8pp above current market price; market at 20% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +3.4% ↑, ETH +2.8% ↑, S&P +1.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$30K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
19% / 21%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1965062
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 13?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?: 83%, Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 74%.
Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: +20.5pp
20% → 40%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
40% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
34% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this