ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5?

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$51K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-9.1pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $51K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777600

Outcome Markets63 markets

This event has 63 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 3?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5?

2%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this