Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?
Closes April 11, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.4% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$37K
Bid / Ask
10% / 10%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862565
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this