Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11?
Closes April 11, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.4% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862566
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this