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Markets/Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Closes October 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES
80%NO

Volume 24h

$59

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

17% / 23%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will José Luna finish in first place in the first…

2026

Full event →
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco
26%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first
24%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
23%
the first round of the 2026 Brazilian preside
20%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in
17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in secon
9%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second plac
7%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in th
5%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in
5%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place
5%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in
4%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
4%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
4%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in
3%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
3%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in
3%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the
3%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
3%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in
2%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third pl
2%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in
2%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the
2%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in
2%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in
2%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second pla
2%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place i
2%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third plac
2%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place i
2%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second plac
1%
Will José Williams finish in second place in
1%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place i
1%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
1%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place
1%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second plac
1%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in second p
1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla
1%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in
1%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
1%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place
1%
Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the
1%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in
1%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
1%
Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in th
0%
Will José Williams finish in first place in t
0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in
0%
Will César Acuña finish in first place in the
0%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in first place
0%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac
0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in
0%
Will José Luna finish in second place in the
0%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first pl
0%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in first place i
0%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first plac
0%
Will George Forsyth finish in first place in
0%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in
0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place
0%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in t
0%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in
0%
Will José Luna finish in first place in the f
0%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in
0%

64 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 20%99%
Buy YES@ 20¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 80¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1366011

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