ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?
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Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?

Closed April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$464K

Liquidity

$587K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $464K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879323

Outcome Markets38 markets

This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7?: 100%.

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?

0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-49.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 5, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 5, 2026

Biggest move: -13.0pp

36% → 23%

Apr 6, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this