Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 76% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.3% ↑, VIX +2.5% ↑, Gold +0.7% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
57% / 95%
Spread
38.00pp
Expert Signal
77%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 38.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706361
This event has 48 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 99%, April 30, 2026: 99%, June 30, 2026: 99%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
+17.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this