Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.9pp below current market price; market at 96% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.6% ↓, VIX -7.4% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
99% / 100%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
96%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706366
This event has 48 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 99%, April 30, 2026: 99%, June 30, 2026: 99%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+12.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this