ForecastMind
Markets/Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Share on X

Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$12K
Liquidity$15K
Bid / Ask4% / 4%
Spread0.20pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

4%

Market Price

4%
Aligned
Macro fundamentals+1.6pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets107 markets

This event has 107 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 99%, Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the fir: 99%, Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second pla: 68%.

Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round
99%
Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round o
99%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the
68%
Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first ro
67%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the f
31%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the
16%
Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of
8%
Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first rou
5%
Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first rou
4%

Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first roun

4%
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in th
4%
Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first roun
3%
Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first roun
2%
Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first ro
1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the
1%
Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of
1%
Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round o
1%
Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round
1%
Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first rou
1%
Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of
1%
Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of
1%
Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first roun
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first r
1%
Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first roun
0%
Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first rou
0%
Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first
0%
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in t
0%
Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first
0%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the f
0%
Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round
0%
Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round
0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first r
0%
Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round o
0%
Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of
0%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in the first round
0%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the firs
0%
George Forsyth finish in third place in the first round
0%
César Acuña finish in first place in the first round of
0%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the firs
0%
José Williams finish in third place in the first round
0%
Fernando Olivera finish in third place in the first rou
0%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third place in the first
0%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first r
0%
Enrique Valderrama finish in third place in the first r
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in the first round
0%
Alfonso López Chau finish in third place in the first r
0%
José Luna finish in third place in the first round of t
0%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round
0%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in the first roun
0%
Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round
0%
Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of
0%
Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in the first round
0%
César Acuña finish in third place in the first round of
0%
Alfonso López Chau finish in fourth place in the first
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round
0%
Carlos Espá finish in second place in the first round o
0%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in the first round
0%
Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first rou
0%
Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round
0%
José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round
0%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first
0%
Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first
0%
José Williams finish in first place in the first round
0%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first roun
0%
César Acuña finish in second place in the first round o
0%
José Williams finish in second place in the first round
0%
Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first ro
0%
Fernando Olivera finish in first place in the first rou
0%
George Forsyth finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place in the first rou
0%
Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in the first round
0%
Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first rou
0%
Enrique Valderrama finish in first place in the first r
0%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in second place in the fir
0%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in second place in the first
0%
Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first
0%
Carlos Álvarez finish in fourth place in the first roun
0%
Carlos Espá finish in fourth place in the first round o
0%
José Luna finish in first place in the first round of t
0%
Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in the first roun
0%
Marisol Pérez Tello finish in fourth place in the first
0%
George Forsyth finish in first place in the first round
0%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place in the first r
0%
Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first roun
0%
Mesías Guevara finish in fourth place in the first roun
0%
George Forsyth finish in fourth place in the first roun
0%
Mario Vizcarra finish in fourth place in the first roun
0%
Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first
0%
Wolfgang Grozo finish in fourth place in the first roun
0%
Fiorella Molinelli finish in fourth place in the first
0%
José Luna finish in second place in the first round of
0%
Roberto Chiabra finish in fourth place in the first rou
0%
Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round
0%
Yonhy Lescano finish in fourth place in the first round
0%
Fernando Olivera finish in fourth place in the first ro
0%
José Luna finish in fourth place in the first round of
0%
César Acuña finish in fourth place in the first round o
0%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in fourth place in the fir
0%
Vladimir Cerrón finish in fourth place in the first rou
0%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the first round of the 202
0%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365890