Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.7% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$87
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
12% / 13%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $87 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692259
This event has 45 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 17%, Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run bef: 16%.
Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this