Will Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 8% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692273
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be: 16%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 16%.
Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this