Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.5% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
9% / 15%
Spread
5.60pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 5.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692318
This event has 45 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 17%, Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run bef: 16%.
Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this