Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692283
This event has 58 active outcome markets. Steve Bannon announce a presidential run befo: 30%, Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run bef: 26%, Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run befo: 24%.
Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this