ForecastMind
Markets/Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?
Share on X

Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
6%FIS
+1ppvs market 5%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 5% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+3.4pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute08:59 AM

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692326

Outcome Markets54 markets

This event has 54 active outcome markets. Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run befo: 28%, Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run be: 21%, Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before: 19%.

Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?

5%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this