MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Closes July 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$86K
Bid / Ask
5% / 6%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666614
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?: 98%.
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
6% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+9.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this