ForecastMind
Markets/MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
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MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$55K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+53.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/556063

Outcome Markets40 markets

This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?: 98%.

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-23.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly23.1%
½ Kelly11.5%
Buy NO+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 23.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this