MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$55K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/556063
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?: 98%.
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-23.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this