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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10?

Closes April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+48.1pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1933605

Outcome Markets70 markets

This event has 70 active outcome markets. Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10?: 100%, Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3PM ET: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11: 100%.

Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10?

1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-8.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

2% YES (-2.4pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-25.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly25.9%
½ Kelly13.0%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 25.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this