Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +5.8pp above current market price; market at 4% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +2.0% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$20K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879426
This event has 69 active outcome markets. Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this