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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
10%FIS
+6ppvs market 5%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +5.8pp above current market price; market at 4% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +2.0% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +2.0% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+5.8pp
Live compute08:05 PM

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$20K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879426

Outcome Markets69 markets

This event has 69 active outcome markets. Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?

3%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this