MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$78K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/636111
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?: 98%.
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this