Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?
Closed April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.4pp below current market price; market at 36% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -1.3% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓, DXY -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
36% / 38%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
37%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656689
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 78%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 56%, Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 43%.
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this